A new sustainability paradigm: not more and faster, but different

A new sustainability paradigm: not more and faster, but different 

In recent months, we have witnessed a series of extreme weather events in different parts of the world. From heavy rains to scorching heatwaves, these events have had serious impacts on local ecosystems and communities. Madagascar has suffered famine, the first to be attributed entirely to climate change. The IPCC now presents a forecast That within a few decades, life on Earth will begin to lose the consequences experience because we have already crossed several tipping points. Moreover, Gaya Herrington (KPMG) made similar findings in her study, comparing the old predictions of "Limits to Growth" with the developments of recent decades. As individuals and organisations, we have to make choices, not just out of moral sense. To ensure our survival beyond 2040, we should not only aim for "net zero" emissions in 2040, but also regenerative actions before 2040. This means there is work to be done. Let us explore some concrete implications.

What awaits us 

Comparing past decades with the "Limits to Growth" model, the data best match two scenarios: the first scenario depicts a future in which pollution and crossing ecological limits undermine both the economy and prosperity. The other scenario, in which technology plays a more prominent role, mitigates the effects to some extent, but there will still be a significant decline in prosperity and the economy. This may still sound a bit abstract, but fortunately Karl Mathiesen, Kalina Oroschakoff, Giovanna Coi and Arnau Busquets Guàrdia of Politico have provided a clearer picture of what to expect for Europe:

1. Extreme heat, with Amsterdam's climate resembling that of Lyon and Rome becoming as hot as Riyadh 50 years ago (Saudi Arabia), leads to more deaths. The danger is that cooling with air conditioning exacerbates the problem.
2. Droughts will become more frequent, leading to lower agricultural yields, especially around the Mediterranean. Northern regions may adapt better and see their yields increase.
3. Forest fires and floods will hit populated areas more often and affect the lives of about 5 million Europeans a year.
4. New diseases transmitted by mosquitoes and other vectors will spread in Europe, leading to the emergence of tropical diseases.
5. Inequality between northern and southern regions in the European Union will increase as heat lowers workers' productivity (in addition to the differences in agricultural yields mentioned above).

In short, the context is going to change significantly. The end of growth is approaching and with it the economic playing field will change. In a context of contraction, there is no room for traditional exploitation; society will demand a different role from organisations.

usA new paradigm: not more and faster, but different 

The first impulse is to think, 'We have to go faster, we have to do more.' This is how we apply our current growth mindset to the sustainability challenge. To prepare yourself (and your organisation) for a time of contraction and wealth loss, you need to start thinking fundamentally differently. Our economy (and its growth) is a construct within our society, and our society operates within an ecological context. Economic contraction cannot be separated from the loss of social welfare and the loss of ecology/nature. Therefore, in order to restore prosperity and the economy (as a fair exchange of value between people), we must start from the basics: nature/ecology. Thus, the "Mother Nature as CEO”- initiative does not seem so far-fetched after all.

Putting "different" into practice 

If we see ecology as the foundation on which our society and economy function, it is important to look at our business models and value chains within the social and ecological context. A method that is very suitable for this (with a few modifications) is "Vision in Product Design.” Designers use this method to redesign products and services with more meaning and relevance within context. Instead of the system product - interaction - context, we can use the system economy - society - ecology to similarly zoom out and work backwards from a desired systemic change to a new business model.

The first steps: understanding the current situation 

• Start by mapping your business model and value chain. How does it work? Where do you deliver value? How does your organisation capture that value?
• Then examine the role your organisation plays in society with that business model. Look for elements that contribute to wellbeing. The "Donut Economy" provides a good framework for identifying these elements.
• The third step is to understand the ecology. Which ecosystems are affected by your business model and the social impact you have? How do you affect ecosystems and how are the systems affected?

Then build your vision of the future layer by layer: 

• How can ecosystems be restored? What natural processes need to function for natural capital to grow?
• What wealth can be created when nature is restored? How can natural growth create social value?
• Only then make it concrete for your organisation. What will be your role in this? What proposition will you offer? For which target group? Which partners and stakeholders should you work with? How will you ensure fair value creation?

In this process, a qualitative approach is essential. It is not about how many tonnes of CO2 to reduce or how many trees to plant, but about understanding the functioning of ecosystems and social structures within which you operate. As an organisation, you need to look for leverage points, tipping points and positive feedback loops. If you build your organisation based on these principles, society will want to retain you in times of contraction. 

We look forward to hearing your insights and experiences. If you would like to participate in this process or discuss how your organisation can approach sustainability differently, send us a message.

Pieter van der Boog
pieter.vanderboog@elementalstrategy.com